Election Forecasting – Eastminster: a global politics & policy blog

Warning signs for Labour-Data from the British Election Study suggest Conservatives are piling up votes in Labour-held seats

April 28, 2017April 28, 2017 by Admin

Admin

Chris Hanretty notes that there are some warning signs for Labour as data suggests Conservatives are piling up votes in Labour-held seats. On Friday, the British Election Study team released data from the tenth wave of their study, conducted in December of last year. This release, like those that preceded…

Scottish Parliament forecast: the Glasgow region

April 29, 2016April 29, 2016 by Editor

Editor

The Scottish Parliament election is now less than a week away. In this series of posts, we'll be describing the state of play in each region. We start in Glasgow, where the SNP looks to clean up. According to our forecasts on www.electionforecast.scot, the Scottish National Party look likely to…

The voteless recovery?

March 18, 2015March 19, 2015 by Editor

Editor

On tonight's Newsnight, Chris Hanretty runs the numbers on "economic voting" -- the tendency of voters who are doing well economically to vote for incumbent parties. This post describes the data -- which you can download here. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” That was…

A Green spoiler effect?

February 24, 2015February 24, 2015 by Editor

Editor

Chris Hanretty considers whether the Green Party are spoiling the Labour Party's chance of winning the 2015 general election. Let's engage in a thought experiment. Suppose we were able to take all the likely Green votes in each seat, and gift them to the Labour party. Because this is a…

The link between seats and votes

February 18, 2015February 18, 2015 by Editor

Editor

Tonight's Newsnight features a discussion of the electoral system -- and in particular the number of seats each party can expect to win, supposing it wins a particular share of the vote. This calculation can be represented visually using a seats-votes curve. The particular seats votes curves shown tonight are…

Is Labour doing better where the NHS is performing poorly?

January 26, 2015January 27, 2015 by Editor

Editor

For tonight's Newsnight, Chris Hanretty looks at NHS performance and election outcomes. Here, he explains his findings and how to access the data. Labour has made the NHS the main theme of its general election campaign. It's used the NHS as a stick with which to beat the government over…

Interpreting #GE2015 polls in one animated GIF

January 20, 2015January 21, 2015 by Editor

Editor

As part of electionforecast.co.uk, Dr Chris Hanretty has had to analyse polls dating back to 1979. Here, he writes about how you should interpret the changes that the polls imply. Here it is: the animated GIF that explains how you should interpret GE2015 polls. It shows all the poll movements…

Election forecasting: some due credit

January 5, 2015January 6, 2015 by Editor

Editor

Chris Hanretty's election forecasting analysis is being used by BBC Newsnight to in the run up to the general election. He appeared on the programme on 5th January 2014 to explain how the principles behind it (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04xtkzl/newsnight-05012015). In this post, he explains how his analysis is built on the work of others. One…

Opinion polls and the media: You can lead a horse to coverage of politics…

November 10, 2014January 9, 2015 by Editor

Editor

Dr. Chris Hanretty has published a new article on the media coverage of elections. I like opinion polls as much as the next person. No, scratch that -- I like opinion polls much more than the next person. I collect them, aggregate them, and make predictions using them. No matter…

General Election 2015 Forecast: UEA expert’s analysis on Newsnight

October 29, 2014January 5, 2015 by Editor

Editor

Dr. Chris Hanretty, Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, is part of a cutting edge team of researchers that are forecasting the outcome of the 2015 general election. Chris appeared on Newsnight on 29th October to explain his predictions. His team's latest predictions are available on the…

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