By Alex Ashman (UEA)
In 2024, Moldova held a constitutional referendum on European accession. Despite, a widespread Russian campaign of interference in the vote, the ‘yes’ campaign led by President Maia Sandu won by a small majority. This referendum followed Moldova’s application for EU candidate status, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Europeanisation in Moldova does have support on both sides of the political spectrum but appears very unlikely to happen in the near future. This is because there are still too many political, social and economic challenges the nation has to overcome.
A controversial EU referendum
Historically, Moldova’s foreign policy has been split between Russia in the East and the EU in the West. This changed when Russia invaded Ukraine and, in response, President Maia Sandu submitted an application for Moldova to get candidate status in 2022, shifting the country’s foreign policy direction firmly towards the West.
On the 20th of October 2024, Moldova held the first round of its presidential election and a constitutional referendum to decide whether European accession should be enshrined in its national constitution. This aimed to build support and legitimacy for the European accession process. It was also used as a campaign tool by Sandu to try and build support for her agenda before the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. The ‘yes’ vote won by a narrow margin of 50.35% leaving the country divided over the issue and was marked by widespread Russian electoral interference. As a result of the referendum, the process of Moldovan accession has now been enshrined as key national policy, but there are still many challenges to overcome for Moldova to join the EU.
The complex process towards accession
The process of accession is long and complicated. It begins with a state applying for candidate status, which is followed by the European Commission’s assessment of the application and approval by the member states in the Council of the EU. The European Commission presented its positive assessment of the application on the 17th of June 2022 and the Council granted candidate status on the 23rd of June 2022. But this was only the first step.
Once accession status has been granted, it is then up to the state to undergo internal economic, political and social reforms to meet the so-called ‘Copenhagen Criteria’, which define the conditions for membership. Accession talks officially and swiftly started with Moldova on the 25th of June 2024. However, Moldova has been asked to make a number of difficult reforms to move forward. The European Commission published a report outlining the targets that Moldova must meet to close accession chapters and move its application forward. Sandu has expressed the will to reach these targets by 2030, but given the number of unresolved issues, this is unlikely to be achievable any time soon.
Intractable (geo)political challenges
One of the major issues that Moldova has to address is the high level of Russian interference in national politics. Since gaining independence in 1991, Chisinau has faced considerable involvement and influence from Moscow. During the referendum there was a huge vote-buying scheme aimed at affecting the decision of 300,000 voters to vote ‘no’ to further European integration. This campaign was largely carried out by Ilan Shor, a convicted fraudster, supported by the Russian government. This impacted the outcome of the referendum and contributed to its narrow result. This level of interference makes it difficult for Moldova to reach some of the democratic requirements for accession.
Another geopolitcal challenge Moldova faces is the continuing Transnistrian conflict. The war in Transnistria, a largely ethnically Russian dominated illegal breakaway state, has caused problems for Moldova since independence. The Russian military still has a presence within Moldova’s borders and this conflict has become increasingly salient since the war in Ukraine. If Moldova were to join the EU, it would have to do so while having an internal conflict with Russia. This makes the process for Moldovan accession extremely complicated and controversial for EU member states, and therefore unlikely to be ratified in the current context. As some have argued, Moldova could annex the region to solve this issue. However, if in principle it would make accession easier, in practice, it may trigger further conflict, with Russia likely to respond.
Institutional and economic modernisation: mind the step?
Moldova has many other social and political problems that would make accession difficult. These include political corruption, social division and widespread criminality. These issues have prevented Moldova from fully modernising and still plague the political system. Corruption has been persistent in Moldova since independence, despite recent attempts to solve this issue. The justice system is going through a reform process, to address issues of executive interference and control.
Moldova also suffers from a huge brain drain, with a diaspora which some estimate to be even larger than the national population. It relies heavily on social remittances from the diaspora, largely based within the EU. This has led to a great deal of economic dependence.
Despite a free trade deal already signed with the EU in 2014, the country’s economic position limits its ability to integrate the single market or eurozone. Its economy is insufficiently diversified and competitive, with only a few industries dominating in its GDP such as the wine sector. At present, Moldova is not capable of making the economic reforms needed to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria, notably to be able to cope with the competitive pressure of the single market. This is unlikely to change in the near future.
Uncertainty ahead
Moldova has never held a dominant place in discussions with the EU, being considered the least important of the CIS states. It is perceived as being less strategically important and overshadowed by a number of other candidates countries. As a result, the country only applied for candidate status only after the invasion of Ukraine and its accession process is still viewed primarily as a secondary problem against the backdrop of this greater conflict. Consequently it has struggled to get – or stay – onto the radar of the EU and, despite majority support for accession, it risks remaining neglected in Brussels.
The Moldovan European referendum was a defining moment, cementing the countries trajectory towards European integration. However, due to deep-rooted social, economic and political challenges, Moldova is going to struggle meet the Copenhagen criteria in the near future. The road ahead is uncertain and prolonged delays could spark a shift away from Europeanisation in a similar way to Erdogan’s Turkey, especially if the bloc of communists and socialist parties secure victory in the next election. Moldova may well join the European Union one day; but will it happen by Sandu’s 2030 deadline? Probably not!
Alex Ashman is a student of International Relations at the University of East Anglia. Alex has an interest in the process of European Accession .
Image: Moldovan President Maia Sandu with President of the European Council Charles Michel in Brussels, 29 April 2024. Copyright Wikipedia.
